According to Nikola Tesla, the average duration of earthly wars is 5-6 years. His assessment is confirmed by the history of Russia's participation in military events in the interval of 1787-2014.
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Nikola Tesla's assessment of the average duration of earthly wars in the past millennium is interesting.
Here is a quote from his letter to the New York Herald, April 15, 1917 - NIKOLA TESLA TELLS OF COUNTRY'S WAR PROBLEMS [1]:
"War, however complex, is essentially a mechanical process, and, in conformity with a universal principle, its duration must be proportionate to the masses set in motion.
The truth of this law is borne out by previous records, from which it may be calculated that, barring conditions entirely out of the ordinary, the period should be from five to six years".
It seemed curious to what extent his assessment is applicable to wars involving Russia.
From the wiki article "List of wars and armed conflicts in Russia" [2]: from 860 to 2014, Russia participated in 188 military events. At the same time, the linearity of the dependence of the date of the event on its serial number in the historical sequence begins approximately from 1787.
Linearity facilitates statistical analysis.
The figure shows the dynamics of the duration of 76 military events in the interval 1787-2014.
The average duration of the event - 4 years - coincides with the assessment of Nikola Tesla.
The figure shows a wave-like rhythm with a period of approximately 156 years - this is 14 solar cycles or 22 seconds of a galactic year.
The rhythm allows us to hope that in the current decade the duration of military events with the official participation of Russia will not exceed 4 years plus or minus 1 year.
Figure 1. The dynamics of the duration of russian military events in the interval 1787-2014
Appendix 22dec2022
The schedule for the release of weapons for the SMO has been formed until 2025 - Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation
Details:
https://regnum.ru/news/economy/3763566.html
Any use of materials is allowed only if there is a hyperlink to the IA REGNUM.
Appendix 22oct2024
The IMF has worsened its forecast for the end of the conflict in Ukraine.
Under a negative scenario, the conflict in Ukraine will end in mid-2026...
It seems that this is a positive scenario, because the IMF's assessment coincides with the average duration of military events with the official participation of Russia - 4 years plus or minus 1 year.
And it is more likely to be plus than minus 1 year - the conflict is very beneficial to all the organizers, participants and fans.
However, the organizers are also capable of peaceful coexistence under the motto "if you want peace, prepare for war" - but not for long, not more than the maximum duration of their life.
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