Аннотация: A cart with an energetic coachman and a big whip on one of the European roads. An essay.
A cart with an energetic coachman and a big whip on one of the European roads. An essay.
In the modern world, for the success of the country, conditions are needed that allow the most capable people to advance to the top of the social pyramid.
In the USA, a significant number of people are working, are acting, whose elevation is the result of their mental abilities and their performance.
Some of them are making efforts in the scientific and technical sphere, in the sphere of high technologies.
China, for example, has a developed economy. But there are no technological leaders like Elon Musk in China.
There are even less chances for the appearance of people like Elon Musk in Belarus (under the current political regime).
Elon Musk worked under several US presidents. The change of specific persons at the highest government post in the United States took place for Musk without significant damage to his business. (The Donald Trump administration and (former) NASA chief Jim Bridenstine may have been more active in help for Elon Musk's effectiveness.) In modern Belarus, the benevolence of a known influential person is highly desirable for any prominent entrepreneur.
What is a benevolence? The one who sees in a benevolence only something simple, something elementary, will be mistaken. It's not just smiles, handshakes, and positive emotions. Smiles and handshakes are followed by being surrounded with a several helpful people, followed by help in solving administrative and financial problems, bonuses (which cannot be refused), and as a result - complete or partial loss of individual conscience and independence. The situation of entangling into an addiction. In case a similar scenario, Elon Musk can reflect on the fate of Cherepanov, who, in the age of railroad construction in Europe and during the urgent need to build a railway from European Russia to Vladivostok, built a small road from the mine to the plant (Ural, Russia), then sunk into eternity. You can reflect not only about Cherepanov, but also about Garin-Mikhailovsky - this talented engineer saw the difficulties in the functioning of the Great Siberian Railway in 1904-1905, and all those events that were associated with the construction and operation of the Chinese Eastern Railway (southern direction to Port -Arthur).
A talented person, adapted to modern reality, does not need Lukashenka's favor at all, except in minimal sizes (expressing respect on a solemn occasion) or except a rabelaisian benevolence (a la mega-grants).
So, modern Belarus is in a situation where independent, self-sufficient, effective people prefer to be outside its borders. This completely deprives the modern Belarusian regime of historical perspective.
And what remains to do?
To negotiate with the regime of Nicolas Maduro about possible ways of survival? ('15 MAY 2021, 16:09. Belarus and Venezuela discussed consolidating efforts to counter sanctions' - https://www.belta.by/politics/view/belarus-i-venesuela-obsudili-konsolidatsiju-usilij-po-protivodejstviju -sanktsijam-441475-2021 /? utm_source = yxnews & utm_medium = desktop). Nicolas Maduro, for sure, has a plan for about fifty years - how to be able to hold out (with his armed surroundings) for half a century using the natural resources that Venezuela has. And after fifty years - Maduro (guaranteed) will be gone. Consequently, the further (after the period of fifty years) is not important for him. Even if Nicholas Maduro had revealed his strategy to representatives of the Lukashenka regime, it would not have been particularly useful for modern Belarus. An attempt to sell the entire relict forest (along with raw materials) will not help much. Most likely, such actions will only bring the fall of the regime closer.
What else?
There is also an option to make public debts in different forms. For example, to place securities on some of the available financial markets. This is a more realistic option, although its prospects are very vague and hidden. ('May 15 [2021], 08:20 Updated 09:05 Belarus will place bonds in Russia for 100 billion Russian rubles' - https://tass.ru/ekonomika/11379775).
Yes ... they worked with batons ... They drank Massandra - they had fun, then they counted up and they wept ...
The general civilization and peacefulness of the Belarusians are added to the batons, as well as the quite natural desire of a part of the Belarusian population to delay the onset of the moment when the economic non-competitiveness of modern Belarus will show itself in all its glory ('Huge achievements have been achieved in thirty years of independence!').
It seems that in political circles of Belarus there is no clear course towards integration into Western Europe - the direct integration or the integration through the restoration of the East-Republican economic space. To a greater extent - the tendency to recall achievements and evaluate them positively, and create mental projections - how good it will be if the situation develops favorably. (Hard-working and talented Belarusians will undoubtedly achieve great success if competitive elections are appointed. - Where will effective entrepreneurial and economic experience and a class of entrepreneurs come from? Where will the necessary economic ties and economic algorithms come from? - Experience, connections, algorithms - all this takes years, decades, centuries!).
Why not start selling Belarusian products to developed Western countries - and see the result? What interests, for example, China (regarding the goods from the modern Belarus) - besides raw materials and food? How many units of Belarusian equipment and of what cost did China purchase?
But the one who thinks that the wheels of history have stopped turning will be mistaken.
More and more elections are apporouching. For example, in Moldova and Armenia. Based on the results of the previous elections (when the party of the parliamentary majority lost), one can roughly predict the future electoral results.
Public opinion across Europe is frightened, already, by the massive repression in Belarus after August 2020.
What are the prospects, with all that, of the Union State of Russia and Belarus?
[Explanation. Пили, ели, веселились; подсчитали - прослезились. Русская поговорка. They drank, ate, they had fun, then they counted up and they wept . A Russian proverb].
May 16, 2021 14:38
Translation from Russian into English: May 16, 2021 18:12
Владимир Владимирович Залесский 'Гужевая повозка Европы. Исторический очерк'.