Аннотация: A political portrait of Alexander Lukashenko, the talks in Sochi one-on-one and three versions. A political essay.
A political portrait of Alexander Lukashenko, the talks in Sochi one-on-one and three versions. A political essay.
Some fragments of the political portrait of Alexander Lukashenko can be identified with the help of his interview on September 8, 2020 (https://russian.rt.com/ussr/article/781543-lukashenko-intervyu-polnyi-tekst?utm_source=smi2).
Where does the interview begin? Since the discussion of issue: is it cold or hot at Putin?
'SIMONIAN: Yes. We are glad to welcome you. And I'm like that... First of all, it's very cool here, like Vladimir Vladimirovich's usually in his offices. You are a frost-resistant person, obviously.
LUKASHENKO: No, well, he loves warmth.
SIMONIAN: No, it's cold at him [in his residence], too.
LUKASHENKO: Putin loves warmth. He does not tolerate this, he does not turn on the air conditioners. We are always with him, when we have a conversation somewhere, I say: 'Listen, it's impossible to sit here, it's hot here.' He told me: 'How hot? It's 20 degrees here. " I say, "I think it's hot."
SIMONIAN: In general, you seem to be in a good mood." [unofficial translation] (Interview dated September 8, 2020).
(We are people of the same circle ... But each remains with his own opinion).
But Lukashenko is trying to gain the upper hand (maybe we are people of the same circle, but I am higher). He talks about his influence on the decisions of Mikhail Gorbachev. It looks a little pathetic ...
'LUKASHENKO: (...) Mikhail Sergeevich lifted me up and said:' Well, how does it look from below? ' (...) I say: "Mikhail Sergeevich ..." And I named the first, second, third [opinions]. (...) Then Nikolai Ivanovich Ryzhkov [the head of government of the USSR] and I met. Aganbegyan was an academician, we were finalizing this program, and it was never accepted." [unofficial translation] (A. Lukashenko. Interview of September 8, 2020).
Interviewers could not play against such cards ... They had to tacitly recognize Lukashenko's level ...
There are no significant personalities either in the external or internal environment of Alexander Lukashenko.
He himself was not noticed either in writing any theoretical works, or in a putting forward any concepts (except for the Treaty on a union state with Russia). This Treaty on the Union State kept Lukashenko afloat, during period, when the influence of people who knew the real and imaginary charm of life in the USSR outweighed.
There is a gradual change of generations. 'Two generations have grown up after that. They are different. And today it is already impossible to realize the integration that was spelled out in the union agreement." [unofficial translation] (A. Lukashenko. Interview of September 8, 2020).
In addition, independent countries of the western orientation, the states of the Western world, appeared around Belarus. And the population of Belarus got the opportunity to compare life in these countries with life in modern Russia.
"... just life is completely different." [unofficial translation] (A. Lukashenko. Interview of September 8, 2020).
What is the difference?
A new generations have grown up.
There are opportunities for comparison (they can compare Russia with Western countries).
The fact that one protocol signed by for a long time familiar people is not enough for legitimacy. The protocol needs to be supported by an undefined set of additional (relatively) independent indicators.
"Remember, I said, and you laughed, that perhaps there will come a time when you and I (that is, Lukashenko and Putin) will have to stand back to back and shoot back." [unofficial translation] (A. Lukashenko. Interview of September 8, 2020).
So, life has changed. What is the questions to talk about one on one?
The first version is the least plausible. Putin tells Lukashenko about Emperor Nicholas I. If the Decembrists had won [Decembrist uprising took place in Imperial Russia on 26 December [O.S. 14 December] 1825], then a political elite would have formed in Russia, which would have paved the way for the bourgeoisie, a political elite, which would be friends with the West, which would have kept Alaska.
Emperor Nicholas I tried to resist the movement of life with the help of violence. He succeeded - in details. But, in general, unpleasant events awaited both Nicholas I and the Romanov dynasty ...
Do you believe that Putin will tell Lukashenko such things? In my personal opinion, the likelihood of such an option is extremely small.
The second option - of the medium level of probability. Putin will take the example of the change of power in Armenia [2018] as a basis and try to persuade Lukashenko to some similar option. With the prospect that Russia will be able to come to an agreement with the new leader of Belarus.
The option is more specific, more likely. But it is also somehow hard to believe in such variant.
The third option is more likely. It is based on the fact that the political makers of Russia take as a basis the example of the United States - a country that issues dollars.
Then follows the thesis that there is no need to spare money on foreign policy (the United States, allegedly, does not spare money for its foreign policy).
After that, the Lukashenko regime is given money. This money is carried away by the wind of history (as happened with the loan given to Yanukovych before his fall). When regrets about the missing money, a counter-thesis is put forward that there is no need to spare money on foreign policy (since the United States, allegedly, does not spare money). About the possibility of the United States to issue dollars, about the potential of the US economy, at this moment - to be silent.
Such three options, three versions.
As a summarizing thesis, I would like to say that any significant decision with the participation of Belarus and the Russian Federation requires a government (on the side of Belarus) that would enjoy generally recognized public support.
In order to obtain such a government, - an experience, traditions, skills of French domestic and foreign policy, of French diplomacy would be very useful for the Lukashenko regime.
Meantime, Lukashknko recalls his own words: 'there will come a time when you and I (that is, Lukashenko and Putin) will have to stand back to back and shoot back'. One-on-one format. Confidential so no one to know. Against all.
September 14, 2020 16:02
Translation from Russian into English: September 14, 2020 22:03.
Владимир Владимирович Залесский 'Политический портрет Александра Лукашенко, переговоры в Сочи один на один и три версии. Политологический очерк'.