Аннотация: Politics of depressivity and the Belarusian nuclear power plant. A civilizational essay.
The politics of depressivity and the Belarusian nuclear power plant. A civilizational essay.
We hypothesized that post-Soviet Russia is characterized by a policy of depressivity.
What is the meaning of such politics? Its meaning is to ensure "political stability".
Depressivity is just one of the directions. Let's say, you can also name (a) the most wide policy of de-Europeanization in post-Soviet Russia, (b) a pursuing of an unprofitable (not profitable) (without any profit) foreign policy ...
An interesting example of the export of the policy of depressivity is the Belarusian NPP (BelNPP).
'In 2018, electricity in the Belarusian network cost around 6 - 7 cents, in 2019 - an average of just over 4 cents, and at the same time Belarus sold electricity to Ukraine at 5.3 cents. ... In the study 'Overview of the electricity and heat sector in the Republic of Belarus', prepared by the Belarusian Heat and Power Institute [BelHPI]('БЕЛТЭИ'), the sum is 10.2 cents [the cost of energy from the Belarusian NPP] '(What renewable energy sources are there in Belarus and can they compete with nuclear power plants. July 22, 2020 at 10:45 am Tamara Kolos / 42.TUT.BY) (https://42.tut.by/693130)
So, in the Belarusian network, electricity cost in 2019 - an average of just over 4 cents. But BelNPP is being put into operation, where the cost of energy is about 10 cents ...
What does this cost price consist of?
'- The cost of production on tires, that is, at the border of the BelNPP, according to our economic calculations, is 3.26 cents per 1 kWh, taking into account the depreciation period of 60 years, - says Andrey Molochko. (...)
One of the additional factors is the need to repay the loan taken from Russia for 15 years. According to the 2011 loan agreement, the Russian Federation pledged to provide Belarus with a $ 10 billion loan. As stated in the 2020 intergovernmental agreement, the interest rate will be 3.3% per annum.
- We know three components - the volume of the Russian loan, the interest rate, and also its term. Taking into account these components and the planned operating mode of the NPP, the credit load can be simplified up to exactly 5 cents per 1 kWh. Thus, taking into account the cost of electricity on the tires 3.26 cents per 1 kW ∙ h, the price of electricity from a nuclear power plant will be 8.26 cents per 1 kW ∙ h, - says Andrey Fedorovich [Molochko]. (...)
A study by "Ecohouse" ('Экодом') says that it is cheaper to abandon the launch of a nuclear power plant, since 'the option to launch the plant showed additional costs [a one-time? or an annual ones?] at $ 481 million even with an annual depreciation and credit deduction of $ 820 million annually for 15 years. However, BELHPI ('БЕЛТЭИ') [scientific institution] specialists do not agree with this. (...)
- In 2004, when the decision was made to build a nuclear power plant, there was still no explosive development of renewable energy sources and it was not clear whether solar and wind energy would pay off [says Andrey Molochko] ...
In a recent interview, eco-activist Pavel Gorbunov mentioned that, in principle, Belarus can provide all the current electricity consumption by wind turbines and solar panels ... " (Experts told what the cost of electricity at BelNPP will be. August 7, 2020 at 8:00. Tamara Kolos / 42.TUT.BY) (https://42.tut.by/695680)
Today it is clear to everyone that BelNPP is not profitable, that it is morally outdated (perhaps it was morally outdated back in 2004 - but then they did not understand this, or did not want to understand, but now it is obvious).
But how can one refuse BelNPP? A loan has been taken, costs have been already incurred in the amount of 4 to 7 billion dollars ... The loan must be repaid ... Percent (interest)... The cost of dismantling a nuclear power plant is approximately $ 3 billion ...
"There was no sadness ... A woman bought a pig ..."
Lukashenko tried to break out of the economic trap.
'On February 14 [2020], Alexander Lukashenko announced his readiness to impose sanctions on Moscow for disrupting the timing of the BelNPP commissioning. According to him, Atomstroyexport (a structure of Rosatom) was supposed to put into operation the first power unit in 2018, and the second one in 2019. The Ministry of Energy of Belarus hopes to launch the first unit this year.
Therefore, Lukashenko proposed, instead of paying penalties, to lower the interest rate on the loan to 'the level with which you build in Hungary, in Vietnam (somewhere around 3% per annum)', and Belarus 'will start paying the loan not in two years, but in five "." (Russia will agree to Belarus restructuring a loan for the construction of a nuclear power plant. June 22, 2020 at 13:53. TUT.BY) (https://news.tut.by/economics/689798.html)
Yes, opportunities have arisen. And there was an attempt. A timid and, in general, unsuccessful attempt ...
'With the commissioning of the nuclear power plant, Belarus joins the world club of states using atomic energy for peaceful purposes' (07 NOVEMBER 2020, 10:34. Lukashenko at BelNPP: today is a historic moment - Belarus becomes a nuclear power) (https://www.belta.by / president / view / lukashenko-na-belaes-segodnja-istoricheskij-moment-belarus-stanovitsja-jadernoj-derzhavoj-414542-2020 /)
A new attempt?
'Today the BelNPP confirmed that the generation of electricity was suspended and will resume after the replacement of certain equipment, reports the Interfax-Zapad agency.' (About BelNPP officially: Electricity generation is suspended, there is no radiation hazard. November 10, 2020 at 14:08. TUT.BY) (https://news.tut.by/economics/707284.html)
Lukashenko is not now in a suitable situation to break, to jump outside the line of red flags ...
[Explanation: "There was no sadness - the woman bought a pig." "A bad [foolish] head does not give rest to the legs" ('Не было печали - купила баба порося'. 'Дурная голова ногам покоя не дает') - Russian ironic proverbs. It is said when someone has new worries, anxiety, because of affairs, responsibilities, purchases, etc., which were made in short-sighted way, without foresight.]
[MDCCCXX. Lukashenko, Novak and BelNPP. Colossal failures and imitation of success. Essay on the Belarusian-Byzantine economy and politics. - November 10, 2020]
November 11, 2020 05:58
Translation from Russian into English: November 11, 2020 11:44.
Владимир Владимирович Залесский 'Политика депрессивности и Белорусская АЭС. Цивилизационный очерк'.